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Insights

Notes from the edge of prediction_

Experiment write-ups, method notes and progress reports — published as we go, including the results that did not work out.

Latest

Recent writing

Experiment

18 Feb 2026

Why individual variability is the signal, not the noise

Averaging across participants has hidden the most interesting result in psi research for fifty years: some people, some of the time, are reliably better than chance.

6 min read · Read article →

Method

27 Jan 2026

Designing an ARV protocol that survives scrutiny

Target pools, judging separation and the small design decisions that quietly decide whether a result means anything at all.

8 min read · Read article →

Platform

09 Dec 2025

Inside the MetaModel: ensembles over intuition

Why we combine many weak learners rather than chase a single architecture, and what that means for the feedback loop.

5 min read · Read article →

Governance

14 Nov 2025

Running research as a DAO

Shared ownership changes the incentives of a research programme. A first look at how our governance model performed in year one.

7 min read · Read article →

Method

08 Oct 2025

The replication problem is not unique to psi

Psychology, medicine and economics all found the same crack in the foundations. What the psi literature can borrow from how they responded.

6 min read · Read article →

Experiment

16 Sept 2025

Does ARV predict the stock market?

Financial targets give psi research something rare — a hard, external ground truth. They also punish sloppy design faster than any reviewer.

7 min read · Read article →

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