Insights · Experiment
Does ARV predict the stock market?_
Financial targets give psi research something rare — a hard, external ground truth. They also punish sloppy design faster than any reviewer.
- 16 September 2025
- Implausible Research
- 7 min read
Associative Remote Viewing binds an impression to a binary market outcome through an arbitrary object association. Get it right nine times in a row, as the Delphi Associates group reportedly did with silver futures, and it becomes very hard to ignore.
Get it wrong, and the reasons are almost never mysterious: displacement onto the wrong session, judging contamination, or a series quietly stopped at a flattering point.
Why markets are a good target
The outcome is externally determined, precisely timed and impossible to nudge. There is no experimenter degrees of freedom in whether a contract closed up or down.
That makes the market a referee rather than a subject — the same reason we use it, and the reason it is unforgiving.
Why they are a hard target
Feedback is emotionally loaded, participants form beliefs about their own streaks, and any real edge is immediately confounded with ordinary market intuition. Base rates drift. Volatility clusters.
Our design responds by isolating the viewer from all market context, fixing series length in advance, and treating non-convergent trials as discarded rather than as losses — publishing both counts either way.
Where we are
The current series is running and pre-registered. We will publish the result when it closes, including if the answer is no.
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